Chaos Rising Pull Rates, Pack Value & Odds

RESEARCH · Chaos Rising PACK EV · TRUE GRADE ODDS · MEGA ERA

Base fee (≤$1.5k) $40

Gradeable hits 100%

PAYOUT ODDS

chance a single pack returns each share of its price · includes bulk · reacts to the fee + gradeable sliders

METHODS

Expected value per card. Every card's graded expected value uses its real PSA population split by grade — not a model. EV = P(10)×PSA-10 price + P(9)×PSA-9 price + … down through PSA 5, where P(grade) is that grade's share of the card's actual PSA population. Outcomes below PSA 5 are valued at the card's raw (ungraded) price. Half grades (9.5, 8.5, …) are excluded and probabilities renormalized over whole grades.

Prices. Each grade is priced at PSA's own price estimate for that card and grade, else the median of its newest 3 PSA-tracked sales, else a public price guide (each grade's source is shown in the card breakdown). Every graded price is floored at the card's raw price — a slab never counts for less than the ungraded card. Raw prices are current market prices for ungraded near-mint singles.

Bulk. The bulk line values a pack's commons, uncommons and non-hit rares at current NM retail singles prices. That is a ceiling: realizing it means selling stacks of cheap singles (fees, shipping, time) or wholesaling, which typically nets 50–70% of list. Sets whose EV leans on bulk — most vintage WOTC packs — should be read with that haircut in mind.

Grading decision & fees. A pulled card is graded only when its expected graded sale minus the expected grading fee beats selling it raw: contract value = max(raw, graded EV − expected fee). Fees follow PSA's value tiers, applied per grade outcome: outcomes worth ≤$1,500 pay the base rate (Regular, $79.99 — the slider), ≤$2,500 pay Express ($149), and anything above pays Super Express ($349, insured to $5,000). So a card's cheap outcomes are costed at the base rate while its monster outcomes carry the premium tier — e.g. a secret-rare PSA 10 worth $5k+ is costed at $349, its PSA 9 at the base rate. The slider adjusts the base tier live.

Gradeable hits. The gradeable-hits slider models pack-fresh condition: only that share of pulled hit copies is in submittable shape, and the rest sell raw. At 100% every worth-grading pull gets submitted; drag it down to see how a rough print run (nicked corners, print lines) erodes the pack's return.

Pull odds. Rarity-tier odds from TCGplayer Authentication Center (8,500 packs) (measured), split evenly across the cards of each tier. Source: set pull rates. These are community estimates, not manufacturer-published odds.

Pack EV. Pack EV = bulk value (commons, uncommons, non-holo rare and reverse slots at current market prices) + Σ over hits of pull odds × contract value. Return % divides by the pack's current market street price.

Caveats. Population grade rates reflect cards collectors chose to submit — pack-fresh grading rates likely run lower (survivor bias). Grades with no recent sales are flagged in each card's breakdown. Populations and prices are snapshots as of the date in the footer.

Card-by-card breakdown

Card	Pull odds	Raw $	Raw EV	Graded EV	− fee	PSA pop	P(10)	Best play	Value / pull	Adds to pack EV

Chaos Rising pull rates

Rarity	Odds per pack	Cards
Double Rare	1 in 4.9	10
Illustration Rare	1 in 9.4	11
Ultra Rare	1 in 12	18
Special Illustration Rare	1 in 83	6
Mega Hyper Rare	1 in 1,000	1

Odds are per booster pack, measured or community-counted for this set, and split evenly across the cards of each rarity.

How much is a Chaos Rising booster pack worth?

One Chaos Rising pack is worth about $3.22 on average if you grade every hit worth grading at a $40 PSA fee, and about $2.56 if you sell every card raw. A booster pack costs about $5.85 (TCGplayer market price), so the expected return is 55% of the pack price. Each card's value comes from its recent graded and raw sales and how often copies of it reach each PSA grade.

Odds of pulling the top Chaos Rising cards, and what they are worth

Card	Odds per pack	Raw	PSA 10	Average pull value
Mega Greninja ex #122	1 in 1,000	$172	$564	$261
Mega Greninja ex #116	1 in 496	$185	$289	$256
Emma #107	1 in 217	$2.11	$110	$67.59
Surfing Beach #114	1 in 217	$3.86	$105	$59.32
Cinccino ex #119	1 in 496	$56.48	$102	$86.56
Jumbo Ice Cream #109	1 in 217	$4.53	$96.00	$49.03
Mega Dragalge ex #118	1 in 496	$37.87	$91.00	$67.92
Mega Greninja ex #100	1 in 217	$10.17	$87.00	$59.76
Mega Floette ex #117	1 in 496	$30.22	$85.00	$61.43
Xerneas #91	1 in 103	$7.44	$79.00	$54.52
Beedrill ex #3	1 in 49	$0.65	$78.40	$43.88
Roxie's Performance #121	1 in 496	$22.50	$78.00	$48.82

Average pull value weighs each PSA grade by how often graded copies of the card reach it.

Chaos Rising questions

What are the Chaos Rising pull rates?

Per Chaos Rising booster pack: Double Rare 1 in 4.9 packs; Illustration Rare 1 in 9.4 packs; Ultra Rare 1 in 12 packs; Special Illustration Rare 1 in 83 packs; Mega Hyper Rare 1 in 1,000 packs. Odds are per pack and split evenly across the cards of each rarity.

How much is a Chaos Rising booster pack worth?

The expected value of one Chaos Rising pack is about $3.22 when every hit worth grading is graded at a $40 PSA fee, or about $2.56 if every card is sold raw. Values come from recent sales of each card and grade.

How much does a Chaos Rising booster pack cost?

A Chaos Rising booster pack sells for about $5.85 (TCGplayer market price).

What are the odds of pulling Mega Greninja ex from Chaos Rising?

About 1 in 1,000 packs. A raw copy sells for about $172 and a PSA 10 for about $564.

Is Chaos Rising worth opening?

At $5.85 a pack and an expected value of $3.22, on average the pulls are worth less than the pack (55% return). Almost all of that value is grading upside on a few chase cards; sold raw, the pulls average $2.56.

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