Fates Collide Pull Rates, Pack Value & Odds

RESEARCH · Fates Collide PACK EV · TRUE GRADE ODDS · XY ERA

Base fee (≤$1.5k) $40

Gradeable hits 100%

PAYOUT ODDS

chance a single pack returns each share of its price · includes bulk · reacts to the fee + gradeable sliders

METHODS

Expected value per card. Every card's graded expected value uses its real PSA population split by grade — not a model. EV = P(10)×PSA-10 price + P(9)×PSA-9 price + … down through PSA 5, where P(grade) is that grade's share of the card's actual PSA population. Outcomes below PSA 5 are valued at the card's raw (ungraded) price. Half grades (9.5, 8.5, …) are excluded and probabilities renormalized over whole grades.

Prices. Each grade is priced at the median of its newest 3 sales within the last 30 days (60 or 90 days when a card trades less often), from recent sales of graded cards across eBay, Fanatics and other marketplaces. Each sale is checked against the sales around it and junk or mismatched sales are dropped. A grade with no sale in 90 days uses PSA's own current estimate; with neither, it counts at the grade below it or at raw, so a gap can only understate a card. Every graded price is floored at the card's raw price — a slab never counts for less than the ungraded card. Raw prices are current market prices for ungraded near-mint singles.

Bulk. The bulk line values a pack's commons, uncommons and non-hit rares at current NM retail singles prices. That is a ceiling: realizing it means selling stacks of cheap singles (fees, shipping, time) or wholesaling, which typically nets 50–70% of list. Sets whose EV leans on bulk — most vintage WOTC packs — should be read with that haircut in mind.

Grading decision & fees. A pulled card is graded only when its expected graded sale minus the expected grading fee beats selling it raw: contract value = max(raw, graded EV − expected fee). Fees follow PSA's value tiers, applied per grade outcome: outcomes worth ≤$1,500 pay the base rate (Regular, $79.99 — the slider), ≤$2,500 pay Express ($149), and anything above pays Super Express ($349, insured to $5,000). So a card's cheap outcomes are costed at the base rate while its monster outcomes carry the premium tier — e.g. a secret-rare PSA 10 worth $5k+ is costed at $349, its PSA 9 at the base rate. The slider adjusts the base tier live.

Gradeable hits. The gradeable-hits slider models pack-fresh condition: only that share of pulled hit copies is in submittable shape, and the rest sell raw. At 100% every worth-grading pull gets submitted; drag it down to see how a rough print run (nicked corners, print lines) erodes the pack's return.

Pull odds. Set-specific community pull-rate data — not era-wide templates — assigned by card number block. Source: set pull rates. These are community estimates, not manufacturer-published odds.

Pack EV. Pack EV = bulk value (commons, uncommons, non-holo rare and reverse slots at current market prices) + Σ over hits of pull odds × contract value. Return % divides by the pack's current market street price.

Caveats. Population grade rates reflect cards collectors chose to submit — pack-fresh grading rates likely run lower (survivor bias). Grades with no recent sales are flagged in each card's breakdown. Populations and prices are snapshots as of the date in the footer.

Card-by-card breakdown

Card	Pull odds	Raw $	Raw EV	Graded EV	− fee	PSA pop	P(10)	Best play	Value / pull	Adds to pack EV

Fates Collide pull rates

Rarity	Odds per pack	Cards
HOLO	1 in 6.9	5
EX	1 in 7.2	17
BREAK	1 in 15	5
MEGA	1 in 24	5
SECRET	1 in 125	1

Odds are per booster pack, measured or community-counted for this set, and split evenly across the cards of each rarity.

How much is a Fates Collide booster pack worth?

One Fates Collide pack is worth about $109 on average if you grade every hit worth grading at a $40 PSA fee, and about $10.56 if you sell every card raw. A booster pack costs about $44.88 (TCGplayer market price), so the expected return is 243% of the pack price. Each card's value comes from its recent graded and raw sales and how often copies of it reach each PSA grade.

Odds of pulling the top Fates Collide cards, and what they are worth

Card	Odds per pack	Raw	PSA 10	Average pull value
Umbreon EX (Full Art) #119	1 in 153	$151	$7,428	$1,354
Alakazam EX (Secret) #125	1 in 125	$163	$7,201	$1,066
Altaria EX (Full Art) #123	1 in 153	$16.06	$4,350	$1,017
Kingdra EX (Full Art) #122	1 in 153	$19.21	$3,854	$749
Lucario (63) #63	1 in 34	$2.16	$3,500	$338
Mew #29	1 in 34	$15.21	$3,000	$723
Glaceon EX (Full Art) #116	1 in 153	$41.96	$2,560	$596
Alakazam EX (Full Art) #117	1 in 153	$32.61	$2,200	$509
Umbreon EX #55	1 in 107	$62.43	$2,150	$576
Lugia BREAK #79	1 in 75	$49.51	$2,000	$782
Tyranitar #56	1 in 34	$0.92	$1,825	$331
M Alakazam EX (Full Art) #118	1 in 153	$80.58	$1,230	$375

Average pull value weighs each PSA grade by how often graded copies of the card reach it.

Fates Collide questions

What are the Fates Collide pull rates?

Per Fates Collide booster pack: HOLO 1 in 6.9 packs; EX 1 in 7.2 packs; BREAK 1 in 15 packs; MEGA 1 in 24 packs; SECRET 1 in 125 packs. Odds are per pack and split evenly across the cards of each rarity.

How much is a Fates Collide booster pack worth?

The expected value of one Fates Collide pack is about $109 when every hit worth grading is graded at a $40 PSA fee, or about $10.56 if every card is sold raw. Values come from recent sales of each card and grade.

How much does a Fates Collide booster pack cost?

A Fates Collide booster pack sells for about $44.88 (TCGplayer market price).

What are the odds of pulling Umbreon EX (Full Art) from Fates Collide?

About 1 in 153 packs. A raw copy sells for about $151 and a PSA 10 for about $7,428.

Is Fates Collide worth opening?

At $44.88 a pack and an expected value of $109, on paper the pulls are worth more than the pack (243% return). Almost all of that value is grading upside on a few chase cards; sold raw, the pulls average $10.56.

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